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Valuing hotel investments through effective forecasting



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The quality of the occupancy forecasts produced by the RNAADR program depends on the quality of the inputs. A strong analyst can perform the necessary preparatory work to produce defensible assumptions and inform a useful market analysis.

Earlier, we considered some of the nuances of three steps in the forecasting process and now we will consider Step 5. In this step, we quantify the market area’s total guest room supply, the total room nights available, the accommodatable latent demand, and the total usable demand. As part of this step, you must account for potential new supply in the market.

Create a post that answers the following questions:

1. What information do you need to analyze new supply and how might you obtain this information?

2. How should you account for planned new hotels?

3. How might you adjust projections based on potential increases in supply that may occur later in the projection period?

In your post, include at least three different sources for your assumptions about new supply and provide specific detail on how you would defend your assumptions against possible objections.

or analysing a new supply on the market, I would use the following sources of information:

1. Market data and insights from professional providers and consultants such as STR-CoStar, CBRE, JLL, etc.

2. Publicly available data, including online booking portals like Booking.com, etc.

3. Government agencies, including economic development and tourism departments.

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